# Lapwing data taken from Brooks et al. 2004 (Animal Biodiversity and Conservation 27.1: 515-529)

###################################################################################################



# National population index (1965-1998)
y = c(0,0, 1092.23,1100.01, 1234.32, 1460.85, 1570.38, 1819.79,1391.27,1507.60, 1541.44,1631.21,1628.60,1609.33,1801.68,1809.08,1754.74,1779.48,1699.13, 1681.39,1610.46,1918.45,1717.07,1415.69, 1229.02,1082.02,1096.61,1045.84, 1137.03, 981.1, 647.67, 992.65, 968.62, 926.83, 952.96, 865.64)

# Mark-recoveries from individuals marked as hatchings (1963-1997) in m-array format
dead.recov <- matrix(c(
13, 4, 1, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1124,
0, 16, 4, 3, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1259,
0, 0, 11, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1082,
0, 0, 0, 10, 4, 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1595,
0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 1, 5, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1596,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 5, 4, 0, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2091,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 9, 4, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1964,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 8, 4, 2, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1942,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1, 3, 3, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2444,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 8, 2, 2, 2, 6, 1, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3055,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 16, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3412,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 4, 4, 7, 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3907,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 4, 0, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2538,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, 3, 5, 1, 3, 3, 2, 3, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3270,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, 5, 0, 5, 4, 2, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3443,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 15, 5, 2, 2, 0, 5, 3, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3132,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7, 4, 6, 1, 3, 3, 2, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3275,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 8, 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3447,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 23, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3902,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 6, 2, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2860,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 19, 7, 6, 4, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 1, 4077,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, 3, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4017,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 25, 2, 5, 2, 0, 2, 2, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 4827,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 14, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2, 2, 1, 0, 2, 0, 1, 4732,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 14, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 0, 0, 3, 0, 0, 5000,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 18, 4, 4, 3, 0, 2, 1, 0, 2, 1, 4769,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 4, 2, 4, 2, 2, 3, 1, 1, 3603,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, 3, 3, 2, 1, 0, 2, 0, 4147,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 4, 6, 1, 0, 1, 0, 4293,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 18, 3, 1, 2, 0, 1, 3455,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 6, 5, 2, 2, 1, 3673,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, 4, 6, 0, 3900,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7, 5, 1, 3578,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 7, 0, 4481,
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 4334), ncol= 36, nrow=35, byrow = T)


# Normalised number of frost days from 1963-1997
f = c(0.1922,0.3082,0.3082,-0.9676,0.5401,0.3082,1.1995,0.1921,-0.8526,-1.0835,-0.6196,-1.1995,-0.5037,-0.1557,0.0762,2.628,-0.3877,-0.968,1.9318,-0.6196,-0.3877,1.700, 2.2797,0.6561,-0.8516,-1.0835,-1.0835,0.1922,0.1922,-0.1557,-0.5037,-0.8516,0.8880,-0.0398,-1.1995)